tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 978 at 13:45 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 978 Southwest BNA 13:45 SDF 15:51 17% 4% 0.5% no record
WN 2584 Southwest BNA 20:40 SDF 22:45 29% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374 4h 19m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 4h 33m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 4h 54m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 2h 59m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 6h 09m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 5h 47m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 35m Charlotte CLT 11:35 → SDF 13:04AA 2816 6h 33m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 31m Dulles IAD 12:48 → SDF 14:37UA 3980 · flown by Mesa 5h 07m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → LGA 09:32DL 4638 · flown by Endeavor 1h 33m New York LGA 11:05 → SDF 13:27DL 5637 · flown by Republic 6h 27m 90% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 12:53 → DFW 15:02AA 1396 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:48 → SDF 19:08AA 2049 5h 15m 71% 41%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:41 → MIA 20:04AA 487 1h 01m Miami MIA 21:05 → SDF 23:42AA 647 6h 01m 62% 38%
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:41 → ORD 20:37UA 1127 48m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 4h 18m 45% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON