Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 626 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 626 BNA 08:02 → SFO 11:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 2989 BNA 17:30 → SFO 20:15 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 626 United Flight history →	BNA 08:02	SFO 11:00	17%	6%	0.7%	81%
UA 581 United	BNA 14:37	SFO 17:38	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 276 United	BNA 19:04	SFO 21:46	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2989 Southwest	BNA 17:30	SFO 20:15	41%	11%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	59m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	7h 02m	92%	69%
United Details →	BNA 10:26 → DEN 12:23UA 502	1h 02m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	6h 43m	88%	62%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	48m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 25m	83%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON