tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:18, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 725 Southwest BNA 17:55 SJC 20:48 33% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 20m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 01m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:00 → SEA 09:59DL 372 1h 46m Seattle SEA 11:45 → SJC 14:15DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest 9h 15m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 26m Denver DEN 11:21 → SJC 13:08UA 1256 8h 08m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:50 → SJC 12:45DL 1254 7h 10m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:55 → ATL 13:05DL 1155 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 57m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → SJC 13:52AA 2834 8h 48m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 58m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:01 → SLC 16:37DL 1593 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 6h 25m 57% 43%
AlaskaDetails → BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281 52m Seattle SEA 10:56 → SJC 13:06AS 658 8h 04m 62% 42%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 58m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 7h 44m 41% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON