Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1068 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1068 BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 1378 BNA 19:33 → SLC 22:07 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1068 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:35	SLC 10:15	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1593 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:01	SLC 16:37	19%	4%	0.9%	87%
WN 4634 Southwest	BNA 13:25	SLC 15:58	23%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 1378 Delta	BNA 19:33	SLC 22:07	26%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON