tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 29% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4397 Southwest BNA 17:50 SMF 20:32 36% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 7h 50m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 14m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:52 → SMF 13:36UA 2673 8h 36m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355 1h 31m Los Angeles LAX 18:41 → SMF 20:10DL 3759 · flown by SkyWest 7h 11m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:45 → SMF 13:28AA 2078 8h 24m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → BNA 13:35 → IAD 16:28UA 2125 1h 43m Dulles IAD 18:11 → SMF 21:01UA 8284 9h 26m 91% 69%
AlaskaDetails → BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281 1h 44m Seattle SEA 11:48 → SMF 13:41AS 772 8h 39m 96% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 55m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743 7h 02m 75% 50%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 53m Chicago ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828 7h 40m 29% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON