tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2899 Southwest BNA 12:55 SRQ 15:57 21% 7% 2.9% no record
WN 2993 Southwest BNA 15:30 SRQ 18:32 27% 9% 3.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 56m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 3h 42m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 4h 26m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 6h 50m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109 6h 25m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 09:16 → SRQ 11:10AA 1452 4h 39m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 5h 21m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 1h 29m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 6h 32m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:41 → MIA 20:04AA 487 2h 50m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 6h 18m 94% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON