Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 818 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26%.

Safest bet that day WN 818 BNA 06:32 → TPA 09:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2892 BNA 18:05 → TPA 21:02 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 818 Southwest	BNA 06:32	TPA 09:30	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 739 Southwest	BNA 09:22	TPA 12:20	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	BNA 09:05	TPA 12:04	13%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 2355 Southwest	BNA 13:15	TPA 16:13	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	BNA 14:16	TPA 17:14	21%	6%	1.1%	no record
WN 742 Southwest	BNA 15:46	TPA 18:43	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 744 Southwest	BNA 20:35	TPA 23:32	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2892 Southwest	BNA 18:05	TPA 21:02	26%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON