tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 331 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 331 Southwest BNA 08:00 TUL 09:47 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 746 Southwest BNA 22:30 TUL 00:19 23% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BNA 11:19 → IAH 13:32UA 241 2h 58m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 6h 49m 99% 98%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 59m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 4h 08m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 5h 38m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → TUL 13:01AA 2657 7h 30m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 35m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → BNA 04:55 → ORD 06:47AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 1h 42m Chicago ORD 08:29 → TUL 10:36AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 5h 41m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 1h 09m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 05m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:42 → IAH 20:54UA 2490 48m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 4h 33m 63% 53%
UnitedDetails → BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766 1h 08m Denver DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27UA 1937 5h 58m 74% 42%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 1h 25m Chicago ORD 20:25 → TUL 22:17UA 2351 5h 18m 67% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON