tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 747 at 10:06 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 747 Southwest BNA 10:06 TYS 12:08 13% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 4300 Southwest BNA 20:40 TYS 22:42 26% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 3h 52m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:36 → TYS 09:40DL 1817 3h 30m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont 4h 07m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 4h 00m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 33m Dulles IAD 12:50 → TYS 14:27UA 6110 · flown by Mesa 4h 57m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor 4h 47m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:40 → TYS 12:53AA 2544 5h 52m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → BNA 10:18 → CLT 12:43AA 3328 1h 41m Charlotte CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 4h 24m 93% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:34 → CLT 19:05AA 3291 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 20:35 → TYS 21:58AA 5909 · flown by Piedmont 4h 22m 71% 45%
UnitedDetails → BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766 56m Denver DEN 17:25 → TYS 22:19UA 2473 6h 50m 62% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON