tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 704 Delta Flight history → BOI 23:12 ATL 05:35 23% 4% 0.7% 77%
DL 874 Delta Flight history → BOI 14:03 ATL 20:19 23% 6% 0.7% 89%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 6h 34m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5924 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Denver DEN 10:11 → ATL 15:23UA 2806 8h 23m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835 7h 39m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → SFO 07:30UA 4678 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 08:52 → ATL 16:43UA 1896 8h 13m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 06:01 → PDX 06:30AS 782 1h 00m Portland PDX 07:30 → ATL 15:15AS 784 7h 14m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → BOI 19:28 → SEA 20:14DL 3688 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Seattle SEA 23:14 → ATL 07:04 +1DL 567 9h 36m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → BOI 08:25 → SLC 09:44DL 3607 · flown by SkyWest 3h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 8h 57m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → BOI 07:00 → LAX 08:20DL 3725 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Los Angeles LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 9h 37m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOI 13:59 → PHX 15:20AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 51m Phoenix PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50AA 2391 6h 51m 73% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON