Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 755 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 755 BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4231 BOI 16:10 → DEN 18:12 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 755 Southwest	BOI 05:00	DEN 07:01	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5924 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 05:00	DEN 07:05	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1782 United Flight history →	BOI 06:30	DEN 08:29	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 364 Southwest	BOI 11:25	DEN 13:27	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1139 United	BOI 10:22	DEN 12:27	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2395 United Flight history →	BOI 17:46	DEN 19:45	34%	12%	0.7%	46%
UA 2173 United Flight history →	BOI 14:41	DEN 16:40	36%	12%	0.6%	76%worse than usual
WN 4231 Southwest	BOI 16:10	DEN 18:12	42%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON