tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1107 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1107 American Flight history → BOI 06:21 DFW 10:34 11% 5% 1.2% 88%
AA 2019 American BOI 13:51 DFW 18:06 33% 8% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5924 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Denver DEN 09:32 → DFW 12:31UA 1350 6h 31m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 2h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800 6h 30m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → SFO 07:30UA 4678 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → DFW 14:25UA 1062 6h 55m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808 53m Minneapolis MSP 10:03 → DFW 12:29DL 2970 5h 59m 90% 76%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 09:13 → PDX 09:34AS 2184 · flown by Horizon 1h 11m Portland PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392 6h 29m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → BOI 07:00 → LAX 08:20DL 3725 · flown by SkyWest 1h 32m Los Angeles LAX 09:52 → DFW 14:54DL 8838 6h 54m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → BOI 08:04 → PHX 09:30AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 6h 06m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → BOI 14:03 → ATL 20:19DL 874 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818 9h 10m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45UA 2395 1h 08m Denver DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239 5h 13m 73% 46%
AmericanDetails → BOI 13:59 → PHX 15:20AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 55m Phoenix PHX 16:15 → DFW 20:53AA 1663 5h 54m 75% 45%
AmericanDetails → BOI 15:28 → ORD 20:20AA 2353 1h 05m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DFW 23:48AA 2281 7h 20m 61% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON