Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3725 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3725 BOI 07:00 → LAX 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 2140 BOI 18:57 → LAX 20:25 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3725 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 07:00	LAX 08:20	7%	3%	0.6%	96%
OO 3009 SkyWest	BOI 07:22	LAX 08:46	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3701 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 16:00	LAX 17:23	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
AS 2140 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	BOI 18:57	LAX 20:25	21%	7%	1.4%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON