tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2808 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2808 Delta Flight history → BOI 05:30 MSP 09:10 7% 2% 0.6% 91%
DL 2982 Delta Flight history → BOI 14:50 MSP 18:37 20% 6% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5924 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Denver DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397 6h 40m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 3h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 7h 40m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOI 08:42 → SEA 09:30DL 3740 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Seattle SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536 7h 47m 96% 81%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 09:13 → PDX 09:34AS 2184 · flown by Horizon 2h 15m Portland PDX 11:49 → MSP 17:02AS 332 6h 49m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOI 07:00 → LAX 08:20DL 3725 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 8h 50m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOI 10:35 → SEA 11:26DL 3750 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Seattle SEA 14:30 → MSP 19:54DL 942 8h 19m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920 3h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847 7h 07m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 10:00 → SEA 10:34AS 2166 · flown by Horizon 2h 54m Seattle SEA 13:28 → MSP 18:36AS 509 7h 36m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45UA 2395 1h 09m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 5h 13m 73% 50%
DeltaDetails → BOI 10:35 → SEA 11:26DL 3750 · flown by SkyWest 47m Seattle SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536 5h 54m 50% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON