Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1409 at 13:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1409 Southwest	BOI 13:15	OAK 14:13	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 5110 Southwest	BOI 19:20	OAK 20:17	25%	9%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 46m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	BOI 11:01 → SLC 12:25DL 1744	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	6h 20m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON