Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5386 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 5386 BOI 08:25 → ORD 13:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2353 BOI 15:28 → ORD 20:20 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5386 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:25	ORD 13:10	18%	7%	0.9%	85%
UA 642 United	BOI 12:23	ORD 17:02	30%	15%	0.9%	no record
AA 2353 American Flight history →	BOI 15:28	ORD 20:20	46%	19%	1.0%	73%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808	50m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → ORD 11:32DL 1567	5h 02m	87%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON