Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 782 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day AS 782 BOI 06:01 → PDX 06:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 229 BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 782 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 06:01	PDX 06:30	6%	1%	0.7%	94%
AS 1314 Alaska	BOI 09:12	PDX 09:41	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 381 Alaska	BOI 13:32	PDX 14:01	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3148 SkyWest	BOI 20:25	PDX 20:59	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 229 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 16:23	PDX 16:45	23%	4%	0.7%	86%
AS 2184 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 09:13	PDX 09:34	6%	6%	3.8%	94%
AS 2209 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 13:29	PDX 13:47	6%	2%	0.0%	94%
AS 2118 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:28	PDX 20:46	24%	12%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON