Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 591 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 591 BOI 07:20 → PHX 08:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4052 BOI 19:05 → PHX 20:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 591 Southwest	BOI 07:20	PHX 08:40	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3675 Envoy	BOI 06:37	PHX 07:56	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6439 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:04	PHX 09:30	17%	5%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
OO 3319 SkyWest	BOI 14:32	PHX 15:58	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 4080 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOI 13:59	PHX 15:20	23%	5%	0.6%	71%
OO 4919 SkyWest	BOI 17:22	PHX 18:49	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3889 Southwest	BOI 15:30	PHX 16:49	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4052 Southwest	BOI 19:05	PHX 20:25	35%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON