Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 118 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day OO 118 BOI 06:45 → SEA 07:24 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 320 BOI 16:19 → SEA 16:51 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 118 SkyWest	BOI 06:45	SEA 07:24	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 364 Alaska	BOI 06:43	SEA 07:16	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 3750 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:35	SEA 11:26	17%	5%	0.6%	92%
DL 3740 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:42	SEA 09:30	18%	5%	0.6%	85%
OO 3020 SkyWest	BOI 08:27	SEA 09:06	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4127 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 18:07	SEA 18:42	25%	9%	0.8%	83%
OO 183 SkyWest	BOI 15:40	SEA 16:24	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 3916 SkyWest	BOI 15:22	SEA 16:01	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 382 Alaska	BOI 18:04	SEA 18:37	31%	8%	1.0%	no record
AS 356 Alaska	BOI 14:07	SEA 14:41	32%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 3688 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 19:28	SEA 20:14	33%	9%	0.8%	77%worse than usual
AS 320 Alaska	BOI 16:19	SEA 16:51	34%	6%	0.9%	no record
AS 2070 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 08:15	SEA 08:50	12%	4%	0.0%	88%
AS 2235 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 13:06	SEA 13:40	13%	0%	0.0%	87%
AS 2159 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 11:42	SEA 12:16	19%	0%	0.0%	81%
AS 2352 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:47	SEA 21:21	40%	15%	2.0%	60%
AS 2166 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 10:00	SEA 10:34	56%	0%	0.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON