tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AS 233 at 10:52 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 233 Alaska BOI 10:52 SNA 12:17 17% 4% 0.7% no record
G4 1604 Allegiant BOI 17:59 SNA 19:27 35% 10% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229 2h 56m Portland PDX 19:41 → SNA 22:15AS 1472 6h 52m 97% 82%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon 3h 45m Portland PDX 17:32 → SNA 20:05AS 574 7h 36m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 09:13 → PDX 09:34AS 2184 · flown by Horizon 1h 04m Portland PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588 5h 02m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 7h 21m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 10:00 → SEA 10:34AS 2166 · flown by Horizon 3h 12m Seattle SEA 13:46 → SNA 16:38AS 773 7h 38m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 11:42 → SEA 12:16AS 2159 · flown by Horizon 2h 43m Seattle SEA 14:59 → SNA 17:43AS 374 7h 01m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 08:15 → SEA 08:50AS 2070 · flown by Horizon 2h 16m Seattle SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357 6h 40m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → BOI 08:04 → PHX 09:30AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 1h 34m Phoenix PHX 11:04 → SNA 12:31AA 1656 5h 27m 100% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229 47m Portland PDX 17:32 → SNA 20:05AS 574 4h 42m 62% 50%
AmericanDetails → BOI 08:04 → PHX 09:30AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 50m Phoenix PHX 10:20 → SNA 11:46AA 2454 4h 42m 68% 50%
UnitedDetails → BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45UA 2395 47m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 5h 15m 57% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON