Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 5778 at 09:35, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5778 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:35	AVL 12:11	9%	3%	0.8%	100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → AVL 11:07DL 3059	5h 37m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → AVL 13:25DL 1182	6h 40m	99%	84%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 08:17 → AVL 11:16AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	6h 06m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	6h 40m	99%	77%
American Details →	BOS 06:52 → DCA 08:48AA 4342 · flown by Republic	1h 17m Washington	DCA 10:05 → AVL 11:45AA 5213 · flown by PSA	4h 53m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:59 → LGA 13:14DL 5854 · flown by Republic	3h 24m New York	LGA 16:38 → AVL 18:35DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	6h 36m	98%	75%
American Details →	BOS 10:10 → CLT 12:33AA 1557	2h 04m Charlotte	CLT 14:37 → AVL 15:35AA 5588 · flown by PSA	5h 25m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	7h 16m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON