Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4304 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4304 BOS 05:10 → BNA 07:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2903 BOS 19:45 → BNA 21:37 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4304 Southwest	BOS 05:10	BNA 07:01	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3803 Southwest	BOS 08:40	BNA 10:32	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:28	BNA 10:26	9%	3%	0.6%	79%
B6 1807 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:27	BNA 08:25	11%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:40	BNA 16:36	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
B6 407 JetBlue	BOS 13:40	BNA 15:39	19%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3930 Southwest	BOS 13:30	BNA 15:21	19%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 2586 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:45	BNA 21:49	25%	10%	0.7%	60%
WN 2995 Southwest	BOS 16:35	BNA 18:27	31%	10%	0.5%	no record
B6 907 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:47	BNA 20:46	31%	13%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
WN 2903 Southwest	BOS 19:45	BNA 21:37	35%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON