Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4666 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4666 BOS 08:38 → BUF 10:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 715 BOS 18:07 → BUF 19:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:38	BUF 10:28	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
B6 1215 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:44	BUF 10:30	10%	4%	0.8%	91%
B6 915 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:02	BUF 13:49	13%	5%	0.8%	75%
MQ 3401 Envoy	BOS 14:50	BUF 16:39	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 4439 Republic	BOS 19:09	BUF 21:00	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
B6 715 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:07	BUF 19:53	26%	12%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON