Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 786 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 786 BOS 05:35 → BWI 07:16 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 794 BOS 19:46 → BWI 21:27 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 786 Southwest	BOS 05:35	BWI 07:16	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5703 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:11	BWI 09:59	4%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 3513 Southwest	BOS 09:12	BWI 10:52	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2022 Southwest	BOS 07:40	BWI 09:16	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:50	BWI 17:42	9%	4%	0.9%	79%
WN 790 Southwest	BOS 10:47	BWI 12:27	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5851 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	BWI 22:29	14%	7%	1.0%	63%
WN 324 Southwest	BOS 12:55	BWI 14:35	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3339 Southwest	BOS 14:25	BWI 16:05	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1375 Southwest	BOS 23:14	BWI 00:55	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3559 Southwest	BOS 17:06	BWI 18:46	29%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 794 Southwest	BOS 19:46	BWI 21:27	36%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON