Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5654 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15%.

Safest bet that day DL 5654 BOS 07:40 → CMH 09:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 5629 BOS 19:25 → CMH 21:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5654 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:40	CMH 09:59	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
YX 4373 Republic	BOS 09:00	CMH 11:23	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5653 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:38	CMH 16:58	8%	4%	0.7%	82%
MQ 3922 Envoy	BOS 13:12	CMH 15:29	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4641 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:06	CMH 20:27	15%	5%	0.7%	69%
DL 5629 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:25	CMH 21:50	15%	5%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON