Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4342 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 4342 BOS 06:52 → DCA 08:48 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 2255 BOS 18:06 → DCA 20:03 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4342 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:52	DCA 08:48	5%	2%	0.7%	85%
YX 4465 Republic	BOS 08:50	DCA 10:46	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:15	DCA 11:07	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 5692 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:25	DCA 09:21	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
B6 455 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:02	DCA 08:00	8%	3%	0.8%	68%
AA 1160 American	BOS 08:13	DCA 10:07	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:20	DCA 12:12	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
B6 1055 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:50	DCA 09:48	12%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 5672 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:15	DCA 14:10	13%	4%	0.8%	85%
B6 2355 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:30	DCA 11:27	13%	5%	0.9%	66%
AA 1164 American	BOS 10:48	DCA 12:42	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:56	DCA 13:51	14%	3%	0.8%	60%
DL 5704 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:48	DCA 23:44	17%	6%	2.0%	77%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:45	DCA 17:49	17%	6%	1.1%	69%
YX 4510 Republic	BOS 14:36	DCA 16:45	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:20	DCA 16:17	19%	5%	0.8%	69%
B6 855 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:53	DCA 14:34	27%	12%	0.9%	65%
DL 5667 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:50	DCA 19:56	28%	10%	1.8%	63%
DL 5666 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:05	DCA 22:03	29%	9%	1.8%	59%
AA 4047 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 20:22	DCA 22:19	31%	9%	3.3%	55%
B6 1355 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:14	DCA 18:00	33%	15%	1.2%	57%
AA 1004 American Flight history →	BOS 19:44	DCA 21:38	36%	14%	1.6%	58%
AA 1421 American Flight history →	BOS 17:49	DCA 19:49	37%	14%	1.6%	52%
B6 1955 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:20	DCA 19:08	39%	17%	1.9%	57%
B6 2255 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:06	DCA 20:03	40%	16%	1.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON