Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 801 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 801 BOS 05:00 → DEN 07:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 803 BOS 20:05 → DEN 22:43 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 801 Southwest	BOS 05:00	DEN 07:15	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 647 United Flight history →	BOS 07:45	DEN 10:19	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 499 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:45	DEN 10:21	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2348 United	BOS 09:27	DEN 12:04	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 414 United Flight history →	BOS 12:22	DEN 14:53	18%	6%	0.7%	90%
B6 393 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:18	DEN 11:38	19%	5%	0.7%	79%
WN 284 Southwest	BOS 11:55	DEN 14:07	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1932 United	BOS 20:53	DEN 23:37	29%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 2297 United Flight history →	BOS 15:10	DEN 17:55	31%	11%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
UA 800 United Flight history →	BOS 16:57	DEN 19:45	36%	13%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
WN 803 Southwest	BOS 20:05	DEN 22:43	40%	10%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	96%	84%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	51m Dulles	IAD 08:14 → DEN 10:00UA 797	6h 15m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	51m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	6h 08m	92%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON