Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2527 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2527 BOS 06:00 → DFW 09:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1401 BOS 18:22 → DFW 21:40 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2527 American Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DFW 09:22	7%	4%	1.1%	91%
AA 701 American Flight history →	BOS 08:01	DFW 11:21	9%	4%	1.0%	91%
AA 397 American	BOS 07:14	DFW 10:30	11%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:15	DFW 10:23	11%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 1209 American	BOS 08:41	DFW 11:54	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 479 American Flight history →	BOS 09:01	DFW 12:19	13%	5%	0.9%	85%
DL 303 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:05	DFW 15:17	16%	5%	0.6%	69%
AA 1438 American Flight history →	BOS 12:59	DFW 16:16	22%	6%	0.9%	69%
AA 1442 American Flight history →	BOS 14:45	DFW 17:54	28%	7%	0.9%	58%
DL 2305 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:20	DFW 22:39	29%	11%	0.7%	67%
AA 3102 American Flight history →	BOS 16:04	DFW 19:16	33%	8%	0.9%	70%
AA 1401 American Flight history →	BOS 18:22	DFW 21:40	41%	10%	1.0%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471	6h 08m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 54m	95%	80%
American Details →	BOS 05:54 → PHL 07:35AA 1540	46m Philadelphia	PHL 08:21 → DFW 10:58AA 3307	6h 04m	93%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON