Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1833 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–52%.

Safest bet that day UA 1833 BOS 05:57 → EWR 07:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 231 BOS 17:27 → EWR 19:02 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1833 United Flight history →	BOS 05:57	EWR 07:25	5%	2%	0.9%	94%
UA 570 United Flight history →	BOS 08:00	EWR 09:23	9%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 1307 United Flight history →	BOS 09:45	EWR 11:13	11%	4%	1.2%	90%
UA 2394 United Flight history →	BOS 10:58	EWR 12:26	18%	7%	1.1%	88%
DL 5829 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:55	EWR 14:22	27%	8%	2.0%	71%
UA 2060 United Flight history →	BOS 23:04	EWR 00:28	31%	11%	1.0%	64%
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:15	EWR 19:58	41%	16%	2.2%	60%
UA 2104 United	BOS 16:01	EWR 17:38	43%	19%	1.0%	no record
UA 1647 United Flight history →	BOS 15:42	EWR 17:09	47%	22%	0.9%	41%
UA 1693 United Flight history →	BOS 18:58	EWR 20:26	50%	24%	1.1%	69%worse than usual
UA 555 United	BOS 17:59	EWR 19:37	52%	23%	1.0%	no record
UA 231 United	BOS 17:27	EWR 19:02	52%	21%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON