Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4786 Republic	BOS 09:45	ILM 12:10	8%	3%	1.1%	no record
B6 1293 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:36	ILM 13:55	14%	5%	0.9%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	8h 13m	100%	89%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 26m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → ILM 11:44AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	97%	83%
American Details →	BOS 08:05 → CLT 10:30AA 2715	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → ILM 14:19AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont	6h 14m	96%	82%
American Details →	BOS 05:54 → PHL 07:35AA 1540	3h 05m Philadelphia	PHL 10:40 → ILM 12:28AA 5978 · flown by Piedmont	6h 34m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 48m	99%	78%
American Details →	BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764	3h 32m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	6h 54m	97%	78%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → ILM 12:14AA 5416 · flown by PSA	6h 09m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	7h 46m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:41 → LGA 19:14AA 4430 · flown by Republic	51m New York	LGA 20:05 → ILM 22:05AA 4792 · flown by Republic	4h 24m	68%	51%
Delta Details →	BOS 18:00 → LGA 19:34DL 5831 · flown by Republic	56m New York	LGA 20:30 → ILM 22:44DL 5204 · flown by Endeavor	4h 44m	72%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON