Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5628 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 5628 BOS 09:20 → IND 11:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest YX 4675 BOS 17:11 → IND 19:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5628 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:20	IND 11:58	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
YX 4385 Republic	BOS 07:19	IND 10:04	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4393 Republic	BOS 10:51	IND 13:35	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5627 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:59	IND 16:46	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
G4 594 Allegiant Flight history →	BOS 09:04	IND 11:36	14%	5%	0.7%	88%
DL 5616 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:45	IND 20:34	16%	6%	0.8%	77%
YX 4675 Republic	BOS 17:11	IND 19:56	17%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON