Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 479 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 479 BOS 06:20 → LAX 09:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 639 BOS 18:36 → LAX 22:01 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 479 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:20	LAX 09:35	9%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 360 United Flight history →	BOS 06:21	LAX 09:35	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2004 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:55	LAX 14:03	14%	4%	0.6%	89%
AA 2455 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	LAX 10:19	15%	4%	0.7%	87%
B6 287 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LAX 09:09	16%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 659 United	BOS 11:42	LAX 14:25	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2141 American	BOS 10:27	LAX 13:43	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
B6 687 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:40	LAX 10:50	20%	4%	0.6%	87%
B6 1487 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LAX 14:09	21%	6%	0.6%	77%
DL 318 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:25	LAX 19:44	23%	8%	0.6%	74%
B6 1187 JetBlue	BOS 15:54	LAX 19:17	27%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 610 Delta	BOS 20:41	LAX 23:51	31%	8%	0.6%	no record
B6 387 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:01	LAX 21:25	35%	11%	0.6%	69%
AA 1578 American Flight history →	BOS 17:33	LAX 20:55	36%	10%	0.7%	67%
UA 639 United Flight history →	BOS 18:36	LAX 22:01	37%	11%	0.7%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 15m	98%	82%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	55m Dulles	IAD 08:18 → LAX 10:36UA 1734	7h 51m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 50m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON