Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4470 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4470 BOS 06:57 → LGA 08:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 5716 BOS 18:59 → LGA 20:29 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4470 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:57	LGA 08:22	5%	2%	1.0%	78%
DL 2524 Delta	BOS 07:02	LGA 08:18	8%	4%	1.0%	no record
YX 4371 Republic	BOS 08:02	LGA 09:27	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 5732 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:00	LGA 10:22	10%	3%	1.3%	88%
YX 4386 Republic	BOS 10:36	LGA 12:01	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
DL 5744 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:00	LGA 11:15	13%	3%	1.2%	86%
DL 5755 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LGA 12:19	15%	4%	1.2%	85%
DL 5748 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:00	LGA 14:27	17%	8%	1.8%	82%
DL 5730 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:52	LGA 15:17	18%	8%	1.9%	77%
YX 416 Republic	BOS 21:52	LGA 23:21	19%	9%	1.2%	no record
DL 5840 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 22:00	LGA 23:23	20%	9%	1.5%	69%
DL 5736 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:00	LGA 16:30	20%	9%	1.2%	74%
DL 5854 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:59	LGA 13:14	21%	6%	1.6%	71%
DL 5609 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:00	LGA 22:21	25%	10%	1.5%	67%
AA 1461 American	BOS 12:10	LGA 13:29	25%	10%	1.2%	no record
DL 5726 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:00	LGA 17:30	25%	12%	1.3%	68%
YX 5621 Republic	BOS 20:05	LGA 21:30	29%	12%	1.3%	no record
DL 5721 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:00	LGA 18:29	30%	13%	1.9%	69%
AA 1629 American	BOS 14:06	LGA 15:25	31%	11%	1.1%	no record
DL 5831 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:00	LGA 19:34	32%	12%	1.7%	65%
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:30	LGA 20:55	33%	11%	1.3%	57%
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:41	LGA 19:14	33%	13%	1.5%	60%
DL 5716 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:59	LGA 20:29	34%	13%	1.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON