Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 675 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Safest bet that day DL 675 BOS 06:10 → MCI 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 314 BOS 19:28 → MCI 22:11 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 675 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:10	MCI 08:41	8%	3%	3.4%	88%
WN 814 Southwest	BOS 14:44	MCI 17:23	25%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 314 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:28	MCI 22:11	25%	11%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	5h 14m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741	5h 09m	90%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON