tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4715 at 21:15, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4715 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 21:15 MDT 22:55 21% 8% 1.0% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:54 → PHL 07:35AA 1540 1h 25m Philadelphia PHL 09:00 → MDT 10:08AA 6117 · flown by Piedmont 4h 14m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 12m Dulles IAD 08:35 → MDT 09:40UA 4986 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 55m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MDT 13:12AA 6134 · flown by Piedmont 7h 07m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:21 → MDT 14:17DL 1354 7h 32m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098 1h 38m Dulles IAD 12:45 → MDT 13:50UA 4372 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 25m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764 3h 15m Philadelphia PHL 12:55 → MDT 14:00AA 5963 · flown by Piedmont 5h 57m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:05 → CLT 10:30AA 2715 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 13:12 → MDT 15:00AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont 6h 55m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 7h 22m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 15:12 → PHL 16:54AA 1776 56m Philadelphia PHL 17:50 → MDT 18:57AA 5949 · flown by Piedmont 3h 45m 65% 50%
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309 56m Philadelphia PHL 19:45 → MDT 21:03AA 6109 · flown by Piedmont 3h 55m 59% 35%
UnitedDetails → BOS 18:43 → ORD 20:40UA 1015 1h 15m Chicago ORD 21:55 → MDT 00:44 +1UA 1719 6h 01m 63% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON