Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5594 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:15	MEM 23:35	23%	7%	1.2%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:47 → MEM 09:49DL 1627	5h 19m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 33m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	8h 02m	100%	84%
American Details →	BOS 06:57 → LGA 08:22AA 4470 · flown by Republic	3h 50m New York	LGA 12:12 → MEM 14:12AA 4807 · flown by Republic	8h 15m	99%	82%
American Details →	BOS 05:54 → PHL 07:35AA 1540	3h 02m Philadelphia	PHL 10:37 → MEM 12:19AA 5040 · flown by PSA	7h 25m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733	7h 14m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	1h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	96%	80%
American Details →	BOS 11:56 → DCA 13:51AA 4337 · flown by Republic	2h 01m Washington	DCA 15:52 → MEM 17:25AA 4497 · flown by Republic	6h 29m	96%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:41 → LGA 19:14AA 4430 · flown by Republic	1h 03m New York	LGA 20:17 → MEM 22:11AA 4696 · flown by Republic	5h 30m	70%	51%
American Details →	BOS 17:49 → DCA 19:49AA 1421	55m Washington	DCA 20:44 → MEM 22:17AA 4681 · flown by Republic	5h 28m	54%	42%
United Details →	BOS 18:58 → EWR 20:26UA 1693	57m Newark	EWR 21:23 → MEM 23:30UA 3563 · flown by Republic	5h 32m	47%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON