Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5603 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:08	MSN 15:03	12%	3%	0.8%	85%
YX 4676 Republic	BOS 20:02	MSN 22:02	22%	7%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	59m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 52m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	8h 51m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:20 → DCA 12:12DL 5592 · flown by Republic	3h 08m Washington	DCA 15:20 → MSN 16:39DL 5645 · flown by Republic	7h 19m	99%	80%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 11:12 → MSN 12:31AA 2443	7h 26m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	8h 28m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:00 → LGA 14:27DL 5748 · flown by Republic	3h 10m New York	LGA 17:37 → MSN 19:16DL 5611 · flown by Republic	7h 16m	99%	74%
United Details →	BOS 07:19 → ORD 09:17UA 2631	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 12:37 → MSN 13:36UA 2349	7h 17m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	58m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → MSN 21:02DL 5444 · flown by Endeavor	4h 47m	72%	52%
American Details →	BOS 18:56 → CLT 21:20AA 922	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → MSN 23:42AA 1426	5h 46m	64%	45%
United Details →	BOS 18:43 → ORD 20:40UA 1015	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:50 → MSN 22:53UA 1251	5h 10m	60%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON