tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1398 Delta Flight history → BOS 11:20 MSY 13:56 13% 3% 1.7% 85%
B6 401 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 11:14 MSY 13:47 20% 6% 1.4% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 17m Dulles IAD 08:40 → MSY 10:28UA 4061 · flown by Mesa 5h 43m 98% 98%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 7h 07m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019 1h 02m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MSY 10:14DL 2790 5h 44m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:52 → DCA 08:48AA 4342 · flown by Republic 2h 42m Washington DCA 11:30 → MSY 13:22AA 2586 7h 30m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:57 → EWR 07:25UA 1833 1h 16m Newark EWR 08:41 → MSY 11:01UA 1527 6h 04m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:54 → PHL 07:35AA 1540 1h 07m Philadelphia PHL 08:42 → MSY 10:54AA 2354 6h 00m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138 3h 23m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 9h 15m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324 1h 37m Chicago ORD 08:41 → MSY 11:05AA 4040 · flown by Envoy 6h 55m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BOS 19:10 → ATL 22:24DL 973 46m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224 5h 33m 58% 43%
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309 1h 03m Philadelphia PHL 19:52 → MSY 22:16AA 549 6h 11m 61% 40%
AmericanDetails → BOS 18:15 → ORD 20:10AA 2837 1h 15m Chicago ORD 21:25 → MSY 23:58AA 3256 6h 43m 63% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON