Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5794 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day YX 5794 BOS 08:39 → ORF 10:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1813 BOS 16:48 → ORF 18:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5794 Republic	BOS 08:39	ORF 10:34	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5858 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:10	ORF 17:09	12%	4%	0.8%	79%
B6 1813 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:48	ORF 18:43	25%	9%	0.9%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON