Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1580 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–47%.

Safest bet that day DL 1580 BOS 07:05 → MCO 10:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 251 BOS 19:55 → MCO 23:10 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:05	MCO 10:11	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
B6 351 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:16	MCO 09:31	11%	3%	0.9%	85%
AA 2720 American	BOS 09:14	MCO 12:32	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
B6 651 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:33	MCO 13:43	19%	7%	1.2%	80%
DL 2887 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:27	MCO 18:54	23%	10%	0.8%	73%
F9 1977 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 11:56	MCO 15:09	25%	8%	1.7%	89%worse than usual
B6 2251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:44	MCO 17:00	29%	11%	1.1%	75%
DL 1513 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:16	MCO 23:32	33%	9%	0.8%	68%
B6 551 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:11	MCO 20:20	42%	18%	1.5%	66%
B6 451 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:16	MCO 22:32	45%	18%	1.0%	53%
B6 251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:55	MCO 23:10	47%	19%	1.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON