tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 311 Alaska Flight history → BOS 11:08 PDX 14:10 12% 3% 0.8% 88%
AS 1319 Alaska Flight history → BOS 16:54 PDX 20:15 22% 5% 0.7% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661 9h 45m 99% 89%
AlaskaDetails → BOS 00:05 → SAN 03:06AS 389 3h 44m San Diego SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 12h 24m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019 1h 16m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 8h 06m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:05 → SLC 09:17DL 859 1h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 9h 05m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 10h 28m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611 1h 00m New York JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36DL 1574 8h 31m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103 1h 56m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 8h 45m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647 3h 08m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 10h 28m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309 1h 18m Philadelphia PHL 20:07 → PDX 23:36AA 2245 9h 31m 71% 51%
UnitedDetails → BOS 18:10 → SFO 21:47UA 2400 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384 9h 40m 66% 48%
UnitedDetails → BOS 15:42 → EWR 17:09UA 1647 1h 36m Newark EWR 18:45 → PDX 21:48UA 560 9h 06m 73% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON