Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1540 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1540 BOS 05:54 → PHL 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3309 BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1540 American Flight history →	BOS 05:54	PHL 07:35	5%	3%	0.8%	91%
B6 1159 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:49	PHL 08:22	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:20	PHL 09:02	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:17	PHL 14:01	9%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 2788 American	BOS 09:29	PHL 11:11	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2764 American Flight history →	BOS 08:03	PHL 09:40	13%	4%	0.8%	91%
YX 4416 Republic	BOS 14:15	PHL 16:05	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2783 American Flight history →	BOS 10:49	PHL 12:26	15%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 5610 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:25	PHL 22:07	21%	8%	1.0%	57%
AA 2086 American Flight history →	BOS 12:57	PHL 14:39	21%	8%	0.8%	75%
B6 1859 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:23	PHL 15:07	22%	11%	0.8%	69%
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:20	PHL 19:15	24%	10%	1.1%	66%
B6 159 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:28	PHL 22:11	28%	13%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
B6 2459 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:08	PHL 17:52	29%	15%	0.7%	69%
AA 1776 American Flight history →	BOS 15:12	PHL 16:54	31%	11%	0.8%	72%
AA 2532 American	BOS 21:20	PHL 23:03	36%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 2110 American	BOS 19:27	PHL 21:09	38%	14%	0.9%	no record
AA 3309 American Flight history →	BOS 17:05	PHL 18:49	41%	15%	1.1%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON