Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 219 at 10:22 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–47%.

Safest bet that day B6 219 BOS 10:22 → SAN 13:39 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 3611 BOS 17:36 → SAN 20:42 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 219 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:22	SAN 13:39	18%	5%	0.7%	89%
AS 389 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 00:05	SAN 03:06	18%	3%	0.7%	70%
AS 256 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 08:28	SAN 11:43	24%	3%	0.7%	85%
B6 319 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:20	SAN 19:27	30%	7%	0.7%	79%
DL 571 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:10	SAN 20:25	36%	10%	0.7%	70%
WN 3611 Southwest	BOS 17:36	SAN 20:42	47%	13%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 25m New York	JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55DL 683	8h 50m	98%	80%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	52m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930	7h 53m	93%	79%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	1h 33m Dulles	IAD 12:40 → SAN 15:03UA 2163	8h 38m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON