tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Dulles, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 816 Delta Flight history → BOS 09:00 SAT 12:24 12% 4% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 57m Dulles IAD 08:20 → SAT 10:54UA 1789 6h 09m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 56m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 54m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 9h 08m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611 1h 00m New York JFK 08:30 → SAT 11:42DL 1166 6h 37m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:57 → EWR 07:25UA 1833 1h 16m Newark EWR 08:41 → SAT 11:59UA 591 7h 02m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:16 → MSP 10:27DL 1308 3h 53m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 9h 55m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019 47m Detroit DTW 08:25 → SAT 10:34DL 788 6h 04m 92% 80%
UnitedDetails → BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414 1h 27m Chicago ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490 7h 29m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 15:12 → PHL 16:54AA 1776 50m Philadelphia PHL 17:44 → SAT 20:45AA 2058 6h 33m 59% 41%
AmericanDetails → BOS 18:22 → DFW 21:40AA 1401 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599 6h 36m 64% 33%
AmericanDetails → BOS 18:15 → ORD 20:10AA 2837 1h 09m Chicago ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 +1AA 431 6h 55m 55% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON