tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 09:26 SDF 12:09 6% 2% 0.6% 85%
YX 4362 Republic BOS 13:13 SDF 16:00 8% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 6h 21m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138 3h 27m Minneapolis MSP 12:49 → SDF 15:47DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 8h 37m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 7h 42m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 7h 56m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418 3h 05m Charlotte CLT 11:35 → SDF 13:04AA 2816 6h 59m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BOS 13:37 → IAH 16:57UA 1976 1h 52m Houston IAH 18:49 → SDF 22:15UA 4052 · flown by Mesa 8h 38m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098 1h 41m Dulles IAD 12:48 → SDF 14:37UA 3980 · flown by Mesa 5h 12m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 7h 34m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 18:56 → CLT 21:20AA 922 1h 20m Charlotte CLT 22:40 → SDF 00:08 +1AA 2004 5h 12m 69% 49%
UnitedDetails → BOS 15:42 → EWR 17:09UA 1647 51m Newark EWR 18:00 → SDF 20:25UA 3415 · flown by Republic 4h 43m 47% 33%
UnitedDetails → BOS 18:58 → EWR 20:26UA 1693 47m Newark EWR 21:13 → SDF 23:36UA 3609 · flown by Republic 4h 38m 39% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON