Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 384 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 384 BOS 07:53 → SEA 11:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 306 BOS 18:37 → SEA 21:49 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 384 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:53	SEA 11:16	14%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 332 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:29	SEA 14:50	18%	4%	0.8%	78%
AS 459 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 07:03	SEA 10:26	22%	4%	0.7%	75%
AS 215 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 09:03	SEA 12:22	22%	4%	0.8%	64%
DL 2889 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:40	SEA 19:11	23%	7%	0.8%	71%
DL 324 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:29	SEA 23:02	25%	9%	0.7%	67%
B6 397 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:27	SEA 22:45	30%	10%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 288 Alaska	BOS 16:58	SEA 20:11	39%	8%	0.9%	no record
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 18:37	SEA 21:49	41%	9%	0.8%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 50m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 04m	96%	85%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	1h 53m Dulles	IAD 13:00 → SEA 15:32UA 1824	9h 07m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON