Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4635 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4635 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:25	SYR 10:55	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
B6 845 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 23:26	SYR 00:54	23%	9%	0.8%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 40m New York	JFK 09:10 → SYR 10:41DL 5436 · flown by Endeavor	4h 36m	99%	84%
American Details →	BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764	3h 32m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont	6h 31m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → SYR 11:25DL 1375	5h 55m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:19 → SYR 14:29DL 2991	7h 44m	99%	81%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 06m Dulles	IAD 08:29 → SYR 09:55UA 4370 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 10m	97%	81%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	1h 28m Dulles	IAD 12:35 → SYR 14:04UA 4499 · flown by GoJet	4h 39m	97%	80%
American Details →	BOS 05:54 → PHL 07:35AA 1540	1h 22m Philadelphia	PHL 08:57 → SYR 10:21AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont	4h 27m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690	7h 44m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 19:44 → DCA 21:38AA 1004	1h 01m Washington	DCA 22:39 → SYR 00:06 +1AA 5456 · flown by PSA	4h 22m	66%	47%
JetBlue Details →	BOS 19:39 → JFK 21:00B6 817	1h 29m New York	JFK 22:29 → SYR 00:03 +1B6 1516	4h 24m	72%	47%
United Details →	BOS 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 1475	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09UA 2481	5h 56m	67%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON