Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1263 at 08:19, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1263 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:19	TVC 10:54	13%	4%	0.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	86%
United Details →	BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → TVC 11:37UA 4169 · flown by GoJet	5h 37m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 53m	96%	74%
American Details →	BOS 07:00 → ORD 09:01AA 1509	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 12:18 → TVC 14:39AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	7h 39m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	6h 05m	96%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BOS 18:43 → ORD 20:40UA 1015	46m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071	4h 54m	26%	10%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON