tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 5h 59m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 7h 12m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 7h 55m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 7h 59m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 7h 54m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:01 → DFW 11:21AA 701 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501 7h 42m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → BOS 14:50 → CLT 17:09AA 885 3h 59m Charlotte CLT 21:08 → VPS 21:50AA 2197 8h 00m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BOS 19:10 → ATL 22:24DL 973 51m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 5h 19m 64% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON