tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 576 at 10:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 576 Southwest BUF 10:50 BNA 11:59 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2359 Southwest BUF 19:00 BNA 20:11 21% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 2664 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:52 → JFK 08:17DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 3h 22m New York JFK 11:39 → BNA 13:03DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor 7h 11m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:53 → ORD 07:48UA 543 2h 49m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 36m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409 6h 54m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 7h 03m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → BUF 11:00 → LGA 12:39AA 4363 · flown by Republic 2h 23m New York LGA 15:02 → BNA 16:39AA 4380 · flown by Republic 6h 39m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → BUF 11:03 → JFK 12:28DL 5223 · flown by Endeavor 3h 21m New York JFK 15:49 → BNA 17:13DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor 7h 10m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 48m Detroit DTW 08:30 → BNA 09:11DL 2682 3h 42m 79% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 51m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 4h 10m 75% 58%
AmericanDetails → BUF 16:54 → DFW 19:20AA 1724 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 1500 6h 16m 69% 38%
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:48 → ORD 14:34UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 1h 35m Chicago ORD 16:09 → BNA 17:54UA 1897 5h 06m 74% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON